Thanks Yogi[s]

For reminding me of something very, very important on this, the day after America’s B-Day.

We are currently down 5 days in a row, down 2 weeks in a row, and down 3 months in a row. Currently /es is negative, so maybe 6 days in a row.

This creates extremely high statistical odds for a bounce on both the daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes.

The time to get bearish was in April/May, as I made clear in about 10 different posts.  Here’s but one, entitled Quarterly Warnings, which focused on multiple up quarters in a row.

The time to get bullish, from a mean reversion perspective is here, in the 1000-1020 price band.

None of this analysis precludes the use of a stop or risk control, but you really would be making a very low probability bet on further downside here.  Do bets with a 10% likelihood payout (further downside)?  In annals of time, of course, but would you bet on such an outcome?

Me?  With my money?  No way I’m fighting 90% odds that suggest a bounce.

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Side note:  In my dedicating this post to the commenter Yogi who prompted me to check for this occurrence, I should also explain that my dog is named Yogi, so I’ve always had an affinity for the name and the concept of stealing picnic baskets in general.  This post is also dedicated to my dog, who is clearly a pretty bearish creature.

Try not picking up girls with the “guaranteed my dog is cuter than yours” line, followed by me showing them that photo on my cell phone.  It’s like watching butter melt in a frying pan.

Maybe July 5th should be Dog Appreciation day, whether literal or figurative (your friends are your dogs).

Happy 4th to all my readers, and happy 5th to all my dogs.